Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana -- one of three Democratic swing votes in the Senate over health reform -- says today is the day: She will announce whether she supports the bill unveiled by Sen. Harry Reid this week ("support" meaning whether she'll help Democrats get the 60 votes they need to override a Republican filibuster).
What will she say? Right now, 78% of readers on Congress.org's Predict-a-Vote are predicting Landrieu will say "yes" (vote here), giving her slightly higher odds that Democratic fence-sitters Sens. Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.).
But close followers of Landrieu's ever-changing stance on health reform are less sure. In November 2008, Landrieu openly proclaimed her support for a public option in a letter to health care advocates.
Yet by October of this year -- after Town Hall uprisings and Obama's sinking poll numbers -- Landrieu boxed herself into a corner by blasting the public option as a "government-run, national, taxpayer-subsidized plan," and said she'd "never" support it.
Yet by Nov. 4, Landrieu was hopping back on the fence, telling Roll Call (sub) she was warming to a public option that raises more revenue. As of yesterday, Landrieu was sounding "positive" after a meeting with Reid.
The interesting thing about Landrieu is that her fence-sitting on health reform isn't as clearly about political survival as it is for fellow Democrats like Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, who faces a tough re-election battle next year.
Matthew Bigg of Reuters has a good piece looking at the Louisiana political landscape Landrieu faces (he briefly cites my analysis of the state's electoral situation). Obama lost big in Louisiana in 2008, and the continued displacement of thousands of African-American voters from New Orleans post-Katrina -- removing the state's most reliable Democratic voters -- have made Louisiana Democrats even more wary of stepping onto what they perceive to be dangerous political limbs.
But it's also true that, despite being an increasingly tough state for Democrats, Landrieu won re-election in 2008 by a six-point margin. Even more importantly, she won't face another election until 2014.
As Michael Tomasky writes in an interesting piece on Landrieu's counterparts in the House, the Blue Dogs, it's unclear how much a "risky" vote on health care will really hurt Democrats who hail from moderate and conservative districts. Tomasky speculates that it could cause some to lose up to a couple percentage points of support for backing health reform -- nothing to sneeze at, for sure -- but overall, it pales in comparison to the power of incumbency and other factors.
That's likely to be doubly true for Landrieu. By the time she runs again, the health reform vote will be five years old -- ancient political history. It's hard to see it proving decisive in the 2014 election.
What might be more damaging, however, is Landrieu's waffling: evidence that Landrieu supported a public option before she opposed it. If that ends up hurting Landrieu, she'll have no one to blame but herself.
Which way do YOU think Landrieu will go? What will it mean for her career? Let us know in the comments.
landrieu will definitely vote for the health care bill. she votes for the party, does not have to worry about her votes, as new orleans voters will continue to vote for her. landrieu is a catholic and votes for abortion, so that tells you, she will never do the right thing, no matter what. being a senator is the most important thing for her, and she will do anything to remain in office.
November 19, 2009 11:22 AM | Reply
If she supports Obama's healthcare reform bill, as they say in South Louisiana..."She's a Gone Pecan"
November 19, 2009 11:29 AM | Reply
1) Stop using pictures of Mary Landrieu from twenty years ago. This is worse than real estate agents who do the same thing. Here's a current picture of Mary Landrieu http://www.foxnews.com/search-results/thumbnails/cached_media/0000/0000336/0000336360/images/thumb.jpg
2) Mary Landrieu will probably vote for this, BUT and a BIG BUTT, People these days don't forget as easily as they did in the past. This could very well be her last run in the senate.
November 19, 2009 1:16 PM | Reply
Mary will waffle until the last minute and then will vote party line. She has no sense of responsibility to the people of Louisiana who overwhelmingly oppose the Democrats plans. As for her political future, 2016 is a long way away, but all democrats will be hurt by her actions...If God blesses me with life until 2016, I definitely will work as hard as possible to defeat her.
November 19, 2009 1:38 PM | Reply
She better support the reform and some form of a public option ..If she does not - she will not get my vote.
November 19, 2009 2:51 PM | Reply
People of louisiana OVERWELMINGLY support the public option - and we are ranked 47th in the country - Mary sure had better do the right thing... this legislation is needed now more than ever and we will not allow a few vocal tea-baggers to stop this progress.
November 19, 2009 3:45 PM | Reply
Hey Anonymous - I wonder if any of the "people of Louisiana who overwhelmingly oppose the Democrats plans" need health insurance, a job or a roof over their heads....
November 19, 2009 3:47 PM | Reply
Sorry, annonymouse. Don't paint this native son with a broad, OVERWHELMING brush. I'm not for the public option and never will be.
November 19, 2009 4:13 PM | Reply
Louisiana is one of the states that is doing quite well during difficult times, however the medicade formula which accounted for all the money which came into Louisiana for two hurricanes has left Louisiana in a debacle. She may be being blackmailed to get the formula changed. Rednecks in Northwest La put her over the top in the last election, and I assure you if she votes to Nationalize Healthcare, burden small business with providing health care or tax, they will unvote her. Look at her record:
She gets an F from gun owners america, she has vote party line 90% of the time almost as close a Al Franken and Dianne Feinstien.
November 19, 2009 4:21 PM | Reply
If "Contrary Mary" does not vote YES on the healthcare bill, she will lose New Orleans, and all she will be able to plead to will be the "Cracker Nation" of Louisiana. She will not re-election, especially when it it comes to my vote.
November 19, 2009 4:47 PM | Reply
Mary will WHORE out the state again. She does it every time. We have the idiot Viter and the prostitute Mary.
November 19, 2009 8:53 PM | Reply
>Dear Mary,
>
>I am writing this morning to implore you NOT to vote for cloture on this 2000 page monstrosity of a health care "reform" bill. I am in the health care industry, and, like many of us, I understand what is wrong with the system, and I know THIS WILL NOT FIX it. I read the HR 3200 bill and understand that the version which passed the House, and the version you are considering are very similar.
>
>I fully appreciate and understand that you want to, and think you are doing something to help citizens of this great country better afford health care, but this bill is NOT going to do that. It is simply rearranging the deck furniture on the Titanic! We MUST change the 3rd party payer system and get the patients back in the loop to get costs down. We MUST reform the tort system to stop physicians from wasting money on defensive medicine, we MUST release restrictions on buying insurance across state lines, and we MUST get health care spending accounts and tax credits to fund them.
>
>I fear that "you know not what you do," and our country will regret this deeply if you make this error. Please do not allow this to pass. It will have far reaching and unappreciated consequences, and they will start with me and others like me who work in the industry.
>
>Thank you
>
>Glenn Guidry
Lafayette , La
November 19, 2009 9:11 PM | Reply